With the majority of NBA teams hitting the 41-game mark, that can only mean three things:
1. All-Star break vacations are already booked.
2. The Knicks are out of playoff contention already.
3. It's time to make overreactions about a league that isn't decided until June.
While we don't know who's coming out of perhaps the deepest title race ever, we can get a good feel on how these teams stack up against each other. This time last year, even before the Marc Gasol acquisition, I had a feeling Toronto was coming out of the Eastern Conference based on how they showed up against top competition. Last season's Raptors squad were the blueprint of a champion, with a host of defensive terror big men and sharpshooting wings backing an A-list superstar in Kawhi Leonard and a B+ option in Pascal Siakam. Who looks like the 2019 Raptors thus far? Who looks like the 2019 Knicks? Well, the 2020 Knicks, but besides them? Let's take stock of the Association, winners and losers style:
WINNER: Embracing the Youth Movement
This one goes out to Miami, Boston, Denver and Memphis. Some of the splashiest offseason moves revolved around established names making moves, including the Heat and Celtics reaching agreements to bring in Jimmy Butler and Kemba Walker, respectively (we'll get to them). The most underrated tact these teams took, though, was investing heavily in young athletes that were eager to prove themselves. During the grind of an 82-game schedule, a team needs that type of energy to succeed on a nightly basis. What Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have brought the Heat is indispensable, both in the box score and the locker room. These three are hungry, and have helped propel Miami to a surprise 28-12 record by combining for 45 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists per contest.
Boston and Denver's "youth" have been called that for a while now, but have finally eclipsed the shadow of anything else going on in their respective cities. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have sat through the iso workings of two ball-dominant point guards, Isaiah Thomas and Kyrie Irving, for their formative years. With Walker taking a step back in usage from his 2018-19 levels in Charlotte, the two former top-five picks have become consistent 20-point scorers, finally "belonging" as key pieces of an Eastern contender. Denver's future pieces alongside Nikola Jokic (specifically the backcourt of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris) have been coming along nicely as well, with the addition of Michael Porter Jr. to the fold bringing more youthful energy.
Finally, the Grizzlies embraced youth because they simply had to, attempting a rebuild on the fly from the former Grit n' Grind era. The results have been perhaps the shock of the NBA standings so far, with the team written off as bottom feeders (including by myself) currently sitting in the West's eighth seed, ahead of 2019 conference finalist Portland and playoff stalwart San Antonio. All they had to do was make the right choice between Ja Morant and RJ Barrett, picking the free-flowing game of Morant to excellent results. The Murray State Racer has excited an entire locker room and fanbase alike, averaging 18 and 7 while flirting with 50/40/90 status (get those free throws up kid!).
WINNER: Leaders, not just in name only
Forget the "Big 3" era of last decade, and even the "Big 2" era that was supposed to rule this season. Much like last season's Raptors rallying around Leonard, some of the league's biggest surprises revolve around top talents embracing true leadership roles. Miami has been boosted by the heart and effort of Butler, who is playing the most efficient game of his career, including a career-high in assist percentage. His energy has been infectious for the rest of the Heat roster, who feels they have to match Butler's spirit each night. So far, they have fallen in line, as the Heat are a top-five team in the rebounding and blocking departments.
The East's current top four is made up of squads following the lead of their star. Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer has continued to craft a two-way monster behind Giannis Antetokoumpo, Brad Stevens and the Celtics received a plethora of positive energy from the Kyrie Irving-to-Kemba Walker switch, and Nick Nurse has successfully plugged Siakam into Leonard's role as primary option.
Looking westward, generous point guards in the thick of the playoff race have upped their leadership stock. The wizardry of Luka Dončić in Dallas, Chris Paul in Oklahoma City and the previously-mentioned Morant have guided their respective squads into newfound togetherness, particularly Paul. The scapegoat for two Houston Rocket playoff runs gone awry, Paul was an afterthought heading into the season, more salary number than man. Instead, CP3 has invigorated his fellow guards with his pitbull mentality, hitting the boards (currently in his second career season with 5+ rebounds per game) with a purpose greater than stat-padding. His mentorship of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schröder reminds fans that Paul is quite the gifted teacher who has brought along the likes of Eric Bledsoe, Darren Collison and Austin Rivers, among others.
LOSER: Future big-man free agent markets
With the exceptions of Dwight Howard on the Lakers (one of the league's most feel-good stories right now), Enes Kanter on the Celtics and Aron Baynes on the Suns, just about every single big-man acquisition of the free agency period has appeared a dud thus far. Turning this around into a mini-list, here are the top five free agent big man blunders from the summer:
5. Al Horford to Philadelphia. Putting this fifth because there's still time for Philly to fix this, and because Horford was very much brought in for a playoff anchor position. However, it's becoming more clear by the game that Horford isn't the best fit for a team already having spacing issues. Let's not make it out like Horford is an elite enough shooter to compensate for these problems, as 33% on 4.2 attempts per game from deep won't push defenders from packing the lane against Ben Simmons-led lineups. Even Horford himself has pointed some of this out. Still time to rectify the situation, though.
4. DeAndre Jordan to Brooklyn. Also putting this lower on the list, since we knew why Brooklyn did it, a bone thrown at the Irving/Kevin Durant duo to bring their friend into the Nets fold. He's been a toned-down version of his old self in limited action, which is still fine for most rosters. However, throw in his long-term deal (The thought of a 34-year-old Jordan getting minutes in three years scares me), and the affect his presence his had on Jarrett Allen's development (Allen is still hovering around just 25 minutes a game due to the rotation with Jordan) make this a double-whammy deal.
3. Willie Cauley-Stein to Golden State. Paying (even at a low cost) for a rim-running big man, I expected much more of Cauley-Stein's Warriors tenure. He seemed to have shown all the necessary skills in Sacramento, and Golden State's injury-riddled roster seemed to open up opportunity for the Kentucky product. Unfortunately, it wasn't to be, as Steve Kerr and staff have taken more of a liking to Villanova rookie Eric Paschall than Cauley-Stein, with the latter averaging the least minutes per game since his sophomore season in Sac-Town. Consider the signing an omen for future markets on run-and-jump bigs.
2. Hassan Whiteside to Portland. Speaking of omens on run-and-jump bigs! Just about everyone saw this coming, and the seemingly gaudy rebounding numbers (currently at 14 per contest) do not help the greater good in Portland. It was commendable for the Blazers to attempt a Plan B at big during Jusuf Nurkic's recovery...except they didn't need a Plan B. They already had one with Kanter. While Kanter and Whiteside both have their issues, Kanter fit in much better as a Nurkic replacement due to his soft passing touch and competent paint shooting. Whiteside's rebounding has not translated to team success on the boards, as the Blazers rank in the league's bottom-third for both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Portland is stuck in a no-win situation here, as their big depth is such that he absolutely needs to play, but he's not effective in doing so. Nor can they dump his expiring deal, as nobody is going to touch his $27 million contract, even with an asset attached. Very short-sighted by the usually savvy Blazers front office.
1. Everyone signed by the Knicks. No surprise here, at least to me. Flooding their cap space with power forwards over the summer, New York looks as lost as ever trying to put this roster together. Does it help younger guys such as RJ Barrett and Kevin Knox? Absolutely not. Was it smart to hoard these assets? That would also be a no, as I still don't think any of their acquisitions (even with a career year from Marcus Morris) are enticing enough to receive a first-rounder. If Nikola Mirotic couldn't garner a first-rounder from Milwaukee last deadline (and former first-overall pick Markelle Fultz only delivered Philly a top-20 protected selection), then no Knick outside of their young building blocks will be worth much. Bone-headed then, still bone-headed now.
Will bigs still receive looks during free agency? Absolutely. In 2020 and beyond, though, it will be with a very watchful eye.
LOSER: Paper Victories
Other than the very top teams (such as the Lakers, Clippers and Bucks), many a squad that was penciled in as a 40-plus win unit is struggling through January.
In the East, Philadelphia's struggles (especially on the road) have to be mentioned again, as they have gone from title favorite to the conference's sixth seed in just over two months. While the 76ers have been hit with injuries to Joel Embiid, that doesn't excuse the seeming lack of planning and execution from Brett Brown's coaching staff. Is it a case of too much tinkering, too much playing around through the doldrums of the schedule? Perhaps, but with the exception of two statement victories at home over Miami and Milwaukee, this has not looked like a Finals unit.
For the second time in three seasons, fans anointed an Irving-led squad before it begins, this time in Brooklyn. The Duke guard's lack of willingness to accept his new locker room is clear by his attempts-per-game, a career-high 21.6, only second in the league to James Harden (Irving's 14 games thus far does not officially qualify him for the list). Comparing Harden and Irving's shot-taking, though, you see why Harden has earned his right to jack. The Beard takes four less two-point attempts per game than Irving, shoots a better clip from three despite six more attempts a contest, and gets to the free throw line at double the rate. Until Irving either mirrors Harden's efficiency or his playmaking ability, or both, he's empty calories for a Nets team that seemed much more at ease with D'Angelo Russell.
In the West, teams bolstered by flashy, name-brand gains have floundered. The previously-mentioned Blazers seem more concerned on winning the hearts of Twitter over winning games on the floor. Carmelo Anthony's involvement is a fine enough story, but his lineups bleed points when he's on the floor. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum still run the show, but the solid supporting cast that got them to Round 3 last season is out the door. Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, Seth Curry and Maurice Harkless all departed the roster, but pundits (including myself) mistakenly called for another playoff run. New Orleans is another disappointment, but I cannot make much of the team until I see them without the soon-to-be-dealt Jrue Holiday, and see them with Zion Williamson in action.
The lesson here: Games are won on heart and effort, especially in the regular season. A team that was called overrated before they even stepped on the floor, the Indiana Pacers, currently sit at 26-15, ahead of both the 76ers and Nets in the East. They're doing this without their best player, and doing it through night-to-night game-planning and hustle. Ditto the Raptors, even if they do have two All-Star caliber guys.
Before I go, here's how I would rank the current title contenders based on potential to hold the Larry O'Brien Trophy:
10. Toronto Raptors. Destined for a hard-fought second-round exit. Not the worst thing in the world, as I didn't think they would be in the position to defend their title whatsoever.
9. Utah Jazz. Well-balanced on both ends, but lacks the firepower to take down other contenders in four out of seven games.
8. Miami Heat. Too reliant on home-court, and while they have many scoring options, running into a team like Philadelphia that is built to take away top options will whittle the Heat down offensively.
7. Boston Celtics. A feel-good unit, but they won't be able to overcome their rim protection shortage in a series against Embiid or Antetokoumpo.
6. Houston Rockets. I can't trust any team when I know they're two or three Russell Westbrook stink-bombs away from being bounced come April.
5. Denver Nuggets. A squad that reminds me of the 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks. They know what they want to do and do it very well. However, unless they swing a trade (Kevin Love? Holiday?), they don't have the ceiling that matches the two LA squads out West.
4. Philadelphia 76ers. I just can't quit on them yet, despite their obvious struggles. A healthy and dominant Embiid is the biggest matchup nightmare in the league.
3. Milwaukee Bucks. A team that includes the likely league MVP can't be out of the top three, even with depth and Bledsoe playoff woes as potential issues.
2. Los Angeles Lakers. Playoff LeBron with a roster that's built for him. If they somehow turn Kyle Kuzma into Bogdan Bogdanović, watch out.
1. Los Angeles Clippers. When push comes to shove, I don't see teams getting enough stops on a Lou Williams-Leonard-Paul George lineup.