The "pro wrestling season," which usually means the run-up to WWE's WrestleMania from January through April, has taken a hit over the past few years.
While it's still mildly exciting that this year's Royal Rumble is emanating from Minute Maid Park in Houston, the excitement level for 2020's affair can be described as tepid at best. While WWE's weekly television shows, Raw and SmackDown, don't help matters by being must-skip TV, it's also a statement on the business as a whole.
January through April was called the "season" of WWE not just because it houses the company's two largest events, but because fan attention usually peaked at this time. If you're a long-time viewer like myself, you know it's probably best to watch casually throughout the summer, skip out on anything post-SummerSlam and return with an appetite for the Rumble build.
The demand for constant wrestling product from the average viewer has grown, though. The gap between "casual" and "hardcore" following of pro wrestling is a greater divide than ever, with the wrestling audience now primarily consisting of "hardcore" viewers. Because of the litany of promotions producing weekly content (such as AEW, NWA, Impact and others), the hardcore fanbase seems to have tunnel vision, only concerned about that week's event. The "season" has been replaced by a year-round flooding of shows big and small, meaning the shows such as Rumble that used to have great importance are now just another show in a sea of them.
Due to this, it doesn't really feel like "Rumble season," even if it is.
That said, it's still fun to predict, so let's run down the 30 competitors in the titular match and handicap their chances of actually winning the big one.
Before I do, though, quick predictions on the other matches on this stacked card (winners in bold):
Andrade (c) vs Humberto Carrillo- US Title match
Bayley (c) vs Lacey Evans- SmackDown Women's Title match
Sheamus vs Shorty G (Chad Gable deserves better, for the record)
King Corbin vs Roman Reigns- Falls Count Anywhere match
Becky Lynch (c) vs Asuka- Raw Women's Title match
"The Fiend" Bray Wyatt (c) vs Daniel Bryan- Strap match for WWE Title
Women's Royal Rumble Final Four: Shayna Baszler, Charlotte Flair, Sasha Banks, Sarah Logan (winner: Baszler)
Men's Royal Rumble (odds in parentheses, surprise entrants in bold):
30. Tucker (+10000)- Since the Rumble's inception, we have seen both members of a tag team in the match, ensuring neither of them is going to win. Why even bother?
29. Elias (+10000)- Has his role, as neutered as it is in the babyface position. The singing/guitar gimmick doesn't translate to the upper card, though, nor does the performer have the necessary ring acumen to make it work.
28. Kassius Ohno (+8000)- One of the five open spots in this year's match should go to the ring veteran, who deserves to finally see the Rumble stage (and a sizable payday) for his efforts in the business.
27. R-Truth (+8000)- His inclusion is quite strange, after a recent Raw segment in which he undeclared for the match after finding out Brock Lesnar was involved. Could he get a shock elimination of The Beast? Perhaps, but unlikely, much like a Rumble win.
26. Dolph Ziggler (+8000)- Ziggler always seems to make it to the end of the Rumble, including a final four appearance last year. Here, he's only an accessory to Corbin, so he won't win. But I wouldn't be shocked if the match came down to Corbin, Ziggler and Bobby Roode against Reigns.
25. Otis (+6000)- Giving him a higher chance than his partner since creative has taken a liking to the big guy, as have the fans. Not a winner, but won't be dumped out in two minutes, either.
24. Buddy Murphy (+6000)- The only possibility that could end in a Murphy win is a 2017 Randy Orton moment, where Murphy is in the final three with unnamed faction leader Seth Rollins, tossing out whoever throws out Rollins. While it could lead to dissension in the Rollins/AoP/Murphy ranks, the group is still in its infancy, so a Murphy face turn would be forced at this time.
23. Erick Rowan (+6000)- Brought into the fold so more "big guys" could be in the match, but I don't see him winning. I get that WWE likes Rowan, and he's shown to be a capable performer in a feud with Reigns. Perhaps a showdown between former Wyatt family members would be interesting, but Rowan being a heel right now prevents this possibility.
22. Bobby Roode (+4000)- The second accessory to Corbin, the "Glorious" one will be Gloriously tossed out by Reigns. Giving him more of a shot than Dolph because he's fresh back from a suspension vacation, leaving him with less of a "loser" stink than Ziggler.
21. Shinsuke Nakamura (+4000)- Has this man ever defended his Intercontinental Title? I think Nakamura won it from Finn Balor in the springtime, and I haven't heard a peep about the IC division since. Anyway, he's got that belt to defend (likely against Braun Strowman), so an American rematch with Lesnar seems off the table.
20. Ricochet (+4000)- The former Prince Puma got mic time against Lesnar on Raw, but he came off as such a geek that he can't win. He's incredible in-ring, but his character is sorely lacking at the moment.
19. Undertaker (+3000)- It was either the Deadman or Shawn Michaels as the Texas legend representative, but I'll go with Undertaker. He can still go to a certain extent, as shown in his match at Extreme Rules this past year, and booking 'Taker in the Rumble is easy. Just like three years ago, guys can run at him and just fall down to his punches. Plus, he could find himself a worthy WrestleMania opponent with his eliminator (Drew McIntyre? AJ Styles?).
18. Samoa Joe (+3000)- Already at legend status, Joe is getting similar treatment to Cesaro from 2013-15. Yes, we'll push you because you're great, but we won't give you anything meaningful. Joe is currently in Raw's top rivalry, teaming with Kevin Owens against Team Rollins, but will it mean anything in the greater scheme of things? Probably not.
17. AJ Styles (+3000)- Styles already finds himself in a three-way feud with Orton and McIntyre, and seems to be firmly placed in the upper mid-card. Being entrenched in a heel persona also hurts his shot at facing fellow baddies Brock and Bray.
16. King Corbin (+3000)- Like with Styles, they're not going all the way with a heel vs heel main event here. Corbin has been the centerpiece of SmackDown to its detriment, a time-waster galore. In the end, I think WWE knows that, so look for a slight de-escalation of his push for the Mania season, only to be right back in the title mix come summertime.
15. Rey Mysterio (+2500)- The Benjamin Button of wrestling, Mysterio has looked every bit the part of his past self during a recent run of matches with Lesnar and Andrade. While it would be fun for the timeless wonder to win his second Rumble, they've already exhausted him and Lesnar, and a Mysterio/Wyatt program is just too off-the-wall for WrestleMania.
14. Randy Orton (+2500)- A two-time winner of the event, Orton is in the ultimate no-win zone for a Rumble competitor: being in feuds with other guys in the match. That just means both guys will be thrown out eventually, in order to continue their feud. Here, it's with either Styles or McIntyre depending on the week, so expect one of those guys to toss The Viper.
13. Rusev (+2500)- A hopeful due to WWE's edict of giving crap to people and seeing if they can make something interesting from it. While Rusev hasn't lit the world on fire in his soap opera storyline with Bobby Lashley, he's certainly owed a win at the end of it. The guy has lost every match in the feud. This is a little more simple than Raven vs Tommy Dreamer, so a lack of babyface wins isn't an enhancement in the way it was for ECW. I want to like Rusev, but I need them to give me hope that he can win a couple of matches. Unfortunately, the Rumble isn't the place, with bigger fish to fry on Sunday than bad high school drama.
12. Kofi Kingston (+2500)- The "KofiMania" storyline leading up to WrestleMania 35 was the most invested I've been in a wrestling story in years. There were twists, multiple layers, a racial undertone that wasn't handled poorly (as it often is), and a satisfying conclusion. I'm happy to say I cried that night at men in tights. It's unlikely Kofi will get another run this year, although in theory, he should be near the top of the line to receive a shot at one of the champions. After all, he never got a rematch for his WWE Title, but the lopsided nature of the loss to Lesnar seemingly halted those plans. You can't count Kofi out after last year, and he might get a shock elimination of Lesnar, but I don't see it with where he's positioned on the card.
11. Bobby Lashley (+2000)- Same deal as Rusev, except two things push him further up the pecking order. One, he actually wins his matches. Two, the showdown between Lashley and Lesnar has been one I've wanted for several years, and Lashley has been waiting even longer for it. I'm sure he's lobbied hard for the bout, and it would be a good hoss battle. I predict we do see Lashley vs Lesnar...but down the line, maybe in 2021. Not for this year's Mania.
10. Matt Riddle (+2000)- The OG Bro of NXT has already teased his entry into the match, so I'll put him here. Riddle's dream since his independent days has been a matchup with Lesnar. While WWE won't go all the way with him, as they're too scared to pull the trigger on anyone, ever, a Rumble match face-off will have to do. Riddle is very unique, but it does give me creeps when he wrestles barefoot. I guess the potent smell of sweaty, stinky feet gives him a kayfabe advantage on opponents. Speaking of NXT...
9. Velveteen Dream (+2000)- ...the brand's biggest character should be a Rumble entry as well. Out of all of the NXT meshing with main roster talent recently, Dream is the one I've wanted to see interact with the cream of the crop the most. The former Tough Enough contestant is a five-tool player if there is such a thing for wrestling. He can go in the ring, he can cut both fun and serious promos, and he has charisma for days. Why not take a chance on Mr. Clark and have him face off with Lesnar or Wyatt? As said above, it's due to WWE's gun-shy attitude towards newer talent. Take Keith Lee, who would've been in this spot had he not just won the NXT North American title. At Survivor Series, Lee went toe-to-toe with the likes of Reigns and Rollins, only to be pinned by Reigns. When push comes to shove, they just won't give someone that necessary momentum-boosting victory. If Dream does get in the match, it will only be for one or two "cute" spots without any actual identity carved out. It's a shame, but not one that is new.
8. Big E (+1800)- The other member of the A-Men (or is it KBX?), the former powerlifter was given the WWE-approved winner pick on Corey Graves' podcast. That alone gives him decent odds. Much like teammate Kingston, he's been too good for too long to be overlooked. Big E (don't call him Langston) is jacked on jacked, can move, can talk, and everyone loves him. It would be "KofiMania" turned up to 11, as I believe E is an even better performer. The first guy on the list I think can actually win.
7. Seth Rollins (+1600)- Rollins has become quite the interesting character since his official heel turn at the end of 2019. A sorely needed move that put him on the top of the cards without it feeling forced. Corniness of the "Monday Night Messiah" nickname aside, Rollins is definitely more comfortable in a skin akin to his real-life snark. Brock was a fantastic babyface opposite Rollins in 2015, and the same dynamic could work five years later. There hasn't been a back-to-back Rumble winner since Steve Austin, so WWE could always pull that card to give him serious credibility in his newfound role.
6. Brock Lesnar (+1200)- I feel safe putting him here. I don't think Lesnar is winning, but I also can't rule it out, so just outside the top five makes sense. Expect at least five big-time interactions, either with folks from Brock's past (Orton, Rollins, Joe, Mysterio) or his potential future (Lashley, Riddle, McIntyre). Minute Maid Park will be buzzing more than their home team. So if he's not winning, who's tossing the Golden Gopher? My guess is Reigns. Since they won't be interacting at Mania, and WWE wants to keep the eternal Reigns-Lesnar feud alive, a spear and a quick toss-out will happen Sunday.
5. Kevin Owens (+1200)- I want to believe. After years of being floundered in the most bland of WWE fare, either as a chicken World Champion or in the 700th McMahon Family feud, Owens has hit his stride as a fighting babyface on Raw. I really want to believe that WWE has faith in Owens to give him the big Lesnar showdown. But, I don't believe it. Can't rule it out, but don't entirely buy it. Owens is too pre-occupied in the Rollins feud, and that will probably go to Mania.
Conspiracy theory time: I believe Owens is the placeholder for CM Punk in this storyline, after Punk declined an in-ring comeback. I don't have any sources on this, but think about it for a second. Rollins has been doing a rip-off of Punk's Straight Edge Savior character, is doing just as much talking about Punk as he is Owens, and his group has taken on two of Punk's favorite people in the business (Mysterio and Joe). Owens wasn't doing much on Raw before Rollins' heel turn, and while I like that KO is in a higher place on the card, it strikes me as weird that they're picking now to push him. Owens' WWE character is in the Punk mold, so maybe I'm just getting similar vibes. I think there's something more here, and if they blow off the Owens/Rollins program seemingly early, perk your ears for "Cult of Personality."
4. Aleister Black (+1000)- It's always convenient to be the fresh face in WWE. Ask Braun Strowman, if WWE is going to go with you, they're only going to do it once, and you better make it count. Of course, Strowman (and McIntyre last year) did make it count, only to lose their feuds in the end. The Rumble isn't a feud, though, it's just one match that is part of a larger push. This year's fresh face is Black, who has one of the most distinct packages in the business. Between his excellent entrance (minus the coffin creak sound effect), his "out of nowhere" finisher and his natural in-ring presence, I would have no problems with the former NXT champ winning.
Two things going against him: Lack of size and promo ability. The first one is not his fault, obviously, as he can't force himself to be 6'6". The second one might be on Black, though. His scripting is godawful, but so is everyone's. WWE doesn't script someone's emoting, nor the passion they can or cannot put into the words. Yes, it's hard to put passion into "pick....a fight...with me," but it sounds even more ludicrous because he clearly doesn't care. That'll be his undoing for this year's chances, as Vince McMahon would want to put his Rumble winner out for face-to-face talking segments, which he hasn't trusted Black to do yet.
3. Braun Strowman (+800)- Speaking of the big man. He's not winning, since it looks like he's in an Intercontinental Title program with Nakamura. The odds are good on Strowman for two reasons, his immense size, and who the SmackDown champion is. Usually with Strowman programs, the audience can't buy it because he's so strong and powerful, how can he lose? Here, WWE has built up an even more invincible force in Wyatt, so the two forces clashing would make for interesting comic book theatre. But, since WWE is so rigid in their planning, they aren't pulling him from the Nakamura feud. Expect the IC Champ and pal Sami Zayn to help toss him.
2. Drew McIntyre (+500)- One of the only Rumble competitors that has been booked to actually care about the match, the "Sexy Scotsman" has been given many a babyface tool in his arsenal as of late. His Claymore Kick countdown and being able to joke on the mic are telltale signs he's going somewhere. Let's put it this way: If it's a SmackDown winner, it's Roman. If it's a Raw victor, it's going to be Drew.
1. Roman Reigns (+200)- Lesnar's inclusion in the match itself means his Mania bout will come from whoever tosses The Beast. Thus, a SmackDown winner. McMahon must be fiending (jokes!) for Reigns to get back in the title picture, keeping him away since his 2019 return. He's the top man on the brand, and the Corbin feud is not (at least I hope) going to Mania. Hope you're ready for Roman to fight spooky demons for two months. That's what FOX wanted in their sports-focused wrestling program, right?